Broadening Risk Factor or Disease Definition as a Driver for Overdiagnosis: A Narrative Review

Medical overuse-defined as the provision of health services for which potential harms exceed potential benefits-constitutes a paradigm of low-value care and is seen as a threat to the quality of care. Value in healthcare implies a precise definition of disease. However, defining a disease may not be straightforward since clinical data do not show discrete boundaries, calling for some clinical judgment. And, if in time a redefinition of disease is needed, it is important to recognize that it can induce overdiagnosis, the identification of medical conditions that would, otherwise, never cause any significant symptoms or lead to clinical harm. A classic example is the impact of recommendations from professional societies in the late 1990s, lowering the threshold for abnormal total cholesterol from 240 mg/dl to 200 mg/dl. Due to these changes in risk factor definition, literally overnight there were 42 million new cases eligible for treatment in the United States. The same happened with hypertension-using either the 2019 NICE guidelines or the 2018 ESC/ECC guidelines criteria for arterial hypertension, the proportion of people overdiagnosed with hypertension was calculated to be between 14% and 33%. In this review, we will start by discussing resource overuse. We then present the basis for disease definition and its conceptual problems. Finally, we will discuss the impact of changing risk factor/disease definitions in the prevalence of disease and its consequences in overdiagnosis and overtreatment (a problem particularly relevant when definitions are widened to include earlier or milder disease).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Broadening Risk Factor or Disease Definition as a Driver for Overdiagnosis: A Narrative Review

Medical overuse-defined as the provision of health services for which potential harms exceed potential benefits-constitutes a paradigm of low-value care and is seen as a threat to the quality of care. Value in healthcare implies a precise definition of disease. However, defining a disease may not be straightforward since clinical data do not show discrete boundaries, calling for some clinical judgment. And, if in time a redefinition of disease is needed, it is important to recognize that it can induce overdiagnosis, the identification of medical conditions that would, otherwise, never cause any significant symptoms or lead to clinical harm. A classic example is the impact of recommendations from professional societies in the late 1990s, lowering the threshold for abnormal total cholesterol from 240 mg/dl to 200 mg/dl. Due to these changes in risk factor definition, literally overnight there were 42 million new cases eligible for treatment in the United States. The same happened with hypertension-using either the 2019 NICE guidelines or the 2018 ESC/ECC guidelines criteria for arterial hypertension, the proportion of people overdiagnosed with hypertension was calculated to be between 14% and 33%. In this review, we will start by discussing resource overuse. We then present the basis for disease definition and its conceptual problems. Finally, we will discuss the impact of changing risk factor/disease definitions in the prevalence of disease and its consequences in overdiagnosis and overtreatment (a problem particularly relevant when definitions are widened to include earlier or milder disease).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Strain-dependent host transcriptional responses to toxoplasma infection are largely conserved in mammalian and avian hosts

Toxoplasma gondii has a remarkable ability to infect an enormous variety of mammalian and avian species. Given this, it is surprising that three strains (Types I/II/III) account for the majority of isolates from Europe/North America. The selective pressures that have driven the emergence of these particular strains, however, remain enigmatic. We hypothesized that strain selection might be partially driven by adaptation of strains for mammalian versus avian hosts. To test this, we examine in vitro, strain-dependent host responses in fibroblasts of a representative avian host, the chicken (Gallus gallus). Using gene expression profiling of infected chicken embryonic fibroblasts and pathway analysis to assess host response, we show here that chicken cells respond with distinct transcriptional profiles upon infection with Type II versus III strains that are reminiscent of profiles observed in mammalian cells. To identify the parasite drivers of these differences, chicken fibroblasts were infected with individual F1 progeny of a Type II x III cross and host gene expression was assessed for each by microarray. QTL mapping of transcriptional differences suggested, and deletion strains confirmed, that, as in mammalian cells, the polymorphic rhoptry kinase ROP16 is the major driver of strain-specific responses. We originally hypothesized that comparing avian versus mammalian host response might reveal an inversion in parasite strain-dependent phenotypes; specifically, for polymorphic effectors like ROP16, we hypothesized that the allele with most activity in mammalian cells might be less active in avian cells. Instead, we found that activity of ROP16 alleles appears to be conserved across host species; moreover, additional parasite loci that were previously mapped for strain-specific effects on mammalian response showed similar strain-specific effects in chicken cells. These results indicate that if different hosts select for different parasite genotypes, the selection operates downstream of the signaling occurring during the beginning of the host's immune response. © 2011 Ong et al

Predictive use of the Maximum Entropy Production principle for Past and Present Climates

In this paper, we show how the MEP hypothesis may be used to build simple climate models without representing explicitly the energy transport by the atmosphere. The purpose is twofold. First, we assess the performance of the MEP hypothesis by comparing a simple model with minimal input data to a complex, state-of-the-art General Circulation Model. Next, we show how to improve the realism of MEP climate models by including climate feedbacks, focusing on the case of the water-vapour feedback. We also discuss the dependence of the entropy production rate and predicted surface temperature on the resolution of the model

Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a general circulation model

We extend the analysis of the thermodynamics of the climate system by investigating the role played by processes taking place at various spatial and temporal scales through a procedure of coarse graining. We show that the coarser is the graining of the climatic fields, the lower is the resulting estimate of the material entropy production. In other terms, all the spatial and temporal scales of variability of the thermodynamic fields provide a positive contribution to the material entropy production. This may be interpreted also as that, at all scales, the temperature fields and the heating fields resulting from the convergence of turbulent fluxes have a negative correlation, while the opposite holds between the temperature fields and the radiative heating fields. Moreover, we obtain that the latter correlations are stronger, which confirms that radiation acts as primary driver for the climatic processes, while the material fluxes dampen the resulting fluctuations through dissipative processes. We also show, using specific coarse-graining procedures, how one can separate the various contributions to the material entropy production coming from the dissipation of kinetic energy, the vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the large scale horizontal fluxes, without resorting to the full three-dimensional time dependent fields. We find that most of the entropy production is associated to irreversible exchanges occurring along the vertical direction, and that neglecting the horizontal and time variability of the fields has a relatively small impact on the estimate of the material entropy production. The approach presented here seems promising for testing climate models, for assessing the impact of changing their parametrizations and their resolution, as well as for investigating the atmosphere of exoplanets, because it allows for evaluating the error in the estimate of their thermodynamical properties due to the lack of high-resolution data. The findings on the impact of coarse graining on the thermodynamic fields on the estimate of the material entropy production deserve to be explored in a more general context, because they provide a way for understanding the relationship between forced fluctuations and dissipative processes in continuum systems

An entire exon 3 germ-line rearrangement in the BRCA2 gene: pathogenic relevance of exon 3 deletion in breast cancer predisposition

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Germ-line mutations in the <it>BRCA1 </it>and <it>BRCA2 </it>genes are major contributors to hereditary breast/ovarian cancer. Large rearrangements are less frequent in the <it>BRCA2 </it>gene than in <it>BRCA1</it>. We report, here, the first total deletion of exon 3 in the <it>BRCA2 </it>gene that was detected during screening of 2058 index cases from breast/ovarian cancer families for <it>BRCA2 </it>large rearrangements. Deletion of exon 3, which is in phase, does not alter the reading frame. Low levels of alternative transcripts lacking exon 3 (Δ3 delta3 transcript) have been reported in normal tissues, which raises the question whether deletion of exon 3 is pathogenic.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Large <it>BRCA2 </it>rearrangements were analysed by QMPSF (Quantitative Multiplex PCR of Short Fluorescent Fragments) or MLPA (Multiplex Ligation-Dependent Probe Amplification). The exon 3 deletion was characterized with a "zoom-in" dedicated CGH array to the <it>BRCA2 </it>gene and sequencing. To determine the effect of exon 3 deletion and assess its pathogenic effect, three methods of transcript quantification were used: fragment analysis of FAM-labelled PCR products, specific allelic expression using an intron 2 polymorphism and competitive quantitative RT-PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Large rearrangements of <it>BRCA2 </it>were detected in six index cases out of 2058 tested (3% of all deleterious <it>BRCA2 </it>mutations). This study reports the first large rearrangement of the <it>BRCA2 </it>gene that includes all of exon 3 and leads to an <it>in frame </it>deletion of exon 3 at the transcriptional level. Thirty five variants in exon 3 and junction regions of <it>BRCA2 </it>are also reported, that contribute to the interpretation of the pathogenicity of the deletion. The quantitative approaches showed that there are three classes of delta3 <it>BRCA2 </it>transcripts (low, moderate and exclusive). Exclusive expression of the delta3 transcript by the mutant allele and segregation data provide evidence for a causal effect of the exon 3 deletion.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This paper highlights that large rearrangements and total deletion of exon 3 in the <it>BRCA2 </it>gene could contribute to hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer. In addition, our findings suggest that, to interpret the pathogenic effect of any variants of exon 3, both accurate transcript quantification and co-segregation analysis are required.</p